Raheem Sterling celebrates scoring the first of his two goals. Photograph: Nick Potts/PA
There are now just two rounds of games left in the UEFA Nations League, and the picture is becoming clearer about who will take part in the finals next June, as well as which nations will be promoted and relegated.
You can read a full explainer for the UEFA Nations League here.
– The group winners of League A go to the Nations League finals in June 2019
– The group winners of Leagues B, C and D are promoted
– The bottom teams in the groups of Leagues A and B are relegated
– The fourth placed teams, and the worst-performing third-placed team, in the groups of League C are relegated. Points against the team in fourth-place are removed to calculate the worst-performing third-placed team as Group 1 only has three teams.
– Final positions in the Nations League will also decided draw pots for Euro 2020 qualifying
This is what is still at stake in November’s final fixtures.
Qualified for Nations League: TBC
Relegated: Iceland, Poland
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 1: Belgium, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, 5 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 2: 2 TBC
It’s all to play for with France, Netherlands and Germany three points apart at the half-way stage. All three nations know they can top the group with two wins. Germany will be out of contention if they lose in France on Tuesday, a result which would see Joachim Low’s men in real danger of a surprise relegation.
Belgium are in the box seat, level on points with Switzerland at the top of the table with a game extra to play. Added to that, they won their first meeting with Switzerland 3-0. It means that if Belgium win at home to already-relegated Iceland next time out, they will top the group unless they lose heavily in Lucerne with head-to-head the first tiebreaker.
Portugal are very much in charge of this group, needing a draw from their trip to Italy on Nov. 17 to secure a place in the finals. Even if they lose in Milan, they will get a second chance and would still be top if they then win at home to Poland, who are already down, in the final match.
All three teams are still in this group. Spain will be through to the finals if they win in Croatia on Nov. 15. However, if they fail to win then England would win the group with a home victory over Croatia on Nov. 18. Croatia must win both those matches to finish first, while England would definitely be relegated should they lose at home to Croatia.
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 2: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, 6 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 3: 4 TBC
This group has a game to play on Tuesday, and Ukraine will secure promotion with a win at home to Czech Republic. Slovakia are bottom of the pile without a point, though would still be in contention for first place if Ukraine lose to the Czechs.
Russia are almost home and dry, cannot be relegated and are guaranteed pot 2 in the Euro 2020 qualifying draw. Only Sweden, who only have one point, can stop them by winning in Turkey and at home to Russia.
Bosnia and Herzegovina are another team on the brink of promotion. Austria must win at home to Bosnia and away in Northern Ireland to deny them top spot. Northern Ireland will be relegated if Austria avoid defeat against Bosnia.
Republic of Ireland host Wales on Tuesday and that game will map out the rest of this group. If Ireland lose in Dublin they are facing relegation’ if Ireland win, the three nations will be separated by just a point. Wales know they will top the group with wins in Ireland and at home to Denmark.
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 3: 6 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 4: Lithuania, 7 TBC
This group could go any way, with Israel top, three points ahead of Scotland and Albania. First up on Nov. 17, Albania must win at home to Scotland to stay in contention, any other result would mean they finish bottom. If Albania lose, they are in danger of being one of the worst-ranked third-placed teams and being relegated. For Scotland, they know a draw in Albania and a win at home to Israel on Nov. 20 will earn promotion. Israel only need a point for top spot. If Albania beat Scotland, and Scotland beat Israel, the group will be decided on goal difference, goals scored, or even away record.
Finland have won all four of their Nations League games and only need a point in Greece on Nov. 15 to secure promotion and a Euro 2020 playoff. However, if they lose that game by more than two goals then they could be overhauled on the final day. Hungary can avoid bottom spot, and will probably be safe from relegation, with a point at home to Estonia in the next match.
Bulgaria will be promoted on Tuesday if they win in Norway and Cyprus fail to beat Slovenia. Likewise, Slovenia will be relegated if they lose at home to Cyprus and Norway get a point against Bulgaria.
Serbia and Montenegro are separated by just a point, with the two teams meeting in Belgrade on Nov. 17. But Romania (home to Lithuania and away to Montenegro) are only a point further back, so any of the three could win the group — though Montenegro appear to have the tougher fixtures (away to Serbia and home to Romania). Two home games for Serbia (Montenegro, Lithuania) suggests they are hot favourites. Lithuania will be relegated unless they win both of their games.
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 4: 1 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 5: 10 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 6: 5 TBC
Georgia will be promoted on Tuesday with a win in Latvia, or with a draw if Kazakhstan vs.Andorra also finishes level.
Luxembourg sit on top of the group and will be promoted with a win at home to Belarus on Nov. 15. A draw will also do for them in that game if they win in Moldova on the final day. Belarus know victory in Luxembourg should effectively win them the group, with a trip to San Marino on the final day. Moldova have to win both their remaining games and hope Luxembourg vs. Belarus is a draw.
Kosovo are top of the group by two points, and victory in Malta on Nov. 17 will see them promoted if second-placed Azerbaijan do not win at home to Faroe Islands. Kosovo host Azerbaijan on the final day, and if both teams win their first match it’s set up for a winner-takes-all showdown. Faroe Islands are very much outsiders for top spot and would need to beat Azerbaijan and Malta, then hope Kosovo vs. Azerbaijan is a draw and Kosovo lose to Malta.
Macedonia will go up on Tuesday with a win in Armenia if Gibraltar vs. Liechtenstein is a draw.